PROSPECTS AND PREDICAMENTS FOR PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC FUTURE IN AN ERA OF TRADE AND GLOBALIZATION

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines Pakistan’s economic performance in the context of trade and globalization, identifying key challenges and opportunities, as well as the impact of exports, imports, inflation, foreign direct investment, and GDP per capita on GDP growth.

Methodology: Using secondary data from 2000–2021 obtained from the World Bank, academic studies, and the Economic Survey of Pakistan, the analysis employs E-Views with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, supported by descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and model stability tests. Findings: GDP is strongly linked to GDP per capita, imports, exports, and FDI, while inflation shows a negative relationship. Regression results highlight significant positive effects from GDP per capita and imports, with exports and inflation having negative but insignificant impacts. Pakistan’s trade growth is hampered by technological, structural, and policy limitations, though initiatives like CPEC and export diversification offer growth potential. Originality: The research integrates econometric results with policy analysis to provide context-specific recommendations, connecting statistical trade performance to Pakistan’s structural and geopolitical realities.